SIR MATHEMATICAL MODEL AND ESTIMATING OF COVID-19 EPIDEMIC SPREADING

Abstract

The SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) Epidemic Model has been utilized effectively in the struggle against past pandemics and has been useful. One can find a discussion here on six Mediterranean countries to support states' fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. The model, which consists of three separate autonomous differential equations, can grant estimations of infected individuals, the future of the pandemic, and predictions for vaccination. The paper estimates the number of infected individuals with a relatively low error rate. While determining the condition of the pandemic with the aid of the (Basic) Reproduction Number (R-0), it creates scenarios about vaccination with the Herd Immune Threshold (H-t) coefficient. The conclusions belong to the struggle of the Mediterranean Basin countries Albania, Israel, Algeria, France, Tunisia, and Morocco.