Determinants of Cigarette Consumption in Turkey: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the determinants of cigarette consumption during 1960-2016 in Turkeyby employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. The variables of real GrossDomestic Product (GDP) per capita, real price of cigarettes, tertiary school enrollment (gross %), urban population (% of total), and tobacco control were adapted as the independent variables. The estimation results revealthat real GDP per capita, urbanization, and tobacco controls positively affect the cigarette consumption whilethe cigarette prices and level of education negatively affect smoking. Urbanization is the most impactful variableon cigarette consumption, followed respectively by tertiary school enrollment, real GDP per capita, real price ofcigarettes, and tobacco control. The estimation results also suggest that controlling the cigarette prices and educating people about the hazardous effects of smoking are important policies for reducing cigarette consumption.The tobacco control policies have not yet had a reducing effect on the cigarette consumption.